USA Trade War Update
Agricultural Goods
The November 14, 2025, Executive Order, “Modifying the Scope of the Reciprocal Tariff with Respect to Certain Agricultural Products”, provides information on the products exempted from Reciprocal Tariffs. With the exception of products listed in the paragraph below, additional HS tariff classification 9903.01.32 must be utilized when entering such goods to declare exemption from Reciprocal Tariffs.
Reciprocal Tariffs were removed on certain agricultural goods imported into the U.S. on or after 12:01 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on November 13, 2025. The list ranges from beef and coffee to fertilizer. The applicable products cover 237 HS tariff classifications, as listed in Annex 1 here.
The following goods are also exempted from Reciprocal Tariffs by utilizing additional HS tariff classification 9903.02.78:
- Etrogs (classifiable in subheading 0805.90.01)
- Tropical fruit, nesoi, frozen, whether or not previously steamed or boiled (classifiable in subheading 0811.90.80)
- Date palm branches, Myrtus branches, or other vegetable material for religious purposes only (classifiable in subheading 1404.90.90)
- Bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and similar baked products, nesoi, and puddings, whether or not containing chocolate, fruit, nuts or confectionery, for religious purposes only (classifiable in subheading 1905.90.10)
- Bakers’ wares, communion wafers, empty capsules suitable for pharmaceutical use, sealing wafers, rice paper and similar products, nesoi, for religious purposes only (classifiable in subheading 1905.90.90)
- Acai (classifiable in subheading 2008.99.21)
- Citrus juice of any single citrus fruit (other than orange, grapefruit or lime), of a Brix value not exceeding 20, concentrated, unfermented, except for lemon juice (classifiable in subheading 2009.31.60)
- Coconut water or juice of acai (classifiable in subheading 2009.89.70)
- Coconut water (classifiable in subheading 2009.90.40)
- Acai preparations for the manufacture of beverages (classifiable in subheading 2106.90.99)
- Essential oils other than those of citrus fruit, other, nesoi, for religious purposes only (classifiable in subheading 3301.29.51)
China Tariffs
New Executive Orders were issued after negotiations with China, covered under this Fact Sheet from the White House.
These Orders will provide for the following changes with respect to imports of China-origin goods into the U.S.:
- 10 percent IEEPA tariff reduction: Existing 20 percent IEEPA (Fentanyl) Tariff will reduce to 10 percent effective November 10, 2025 (all other existing tariffs on China-origin goods remain unchanged)
- Suspension of HS 9903.01.63: Currently suspended Reciprocal Tariff (34 percent) provided for under HS 9903.01.63 is to remain suspended through November 10, 2026
- Section 301 exclusions set to expire on November 29, 2025, have been extended through November 10, 2026
- Section 301 tariff on China-manufactured ships suspended for one year, beginning November 10, 2025, through November 9, 2026
For more information, contact Brian Rowe, Director – Customs Compliance & Regulatory Affairs.
CUSMA Compliance
🚛 Simplify Your Cross-Border Trade with CUSMA
Navigating the complexities of international trade shouldn’t take time away from running your business. The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA/USMCA) offers significant financial benefits, including the ability to waive regular duties on qualifying imports into Canada and the US. However, realizing these savings requires precise documentation, specifically a valid Certificate of Origin. That’s where we can help. We provide full CUSMA management services to ensure your goods meet specific rules of origin so you can claim duty-free treatment without the administrative headache. Let us handle the compliance details so you can focus on your company’s growth. Visit Universal Logistics to learn more about how we can streamline your supply chain today!
CIFFA Conference 2025
On October 29th and 30th, several members of the Universal Logistics team attended the 2025 CIFFA Conference, held at the Delta Toronto Airport & Conference Centre in Mississauga, Ontario. This event brought together over 450 logistics and supply chain professionals from across Canada and beyond. With a theme of “Forward Thinking: Redefining Excellence in the Supply Chain”, the event underscored the industry’s commitment to innovation, collaboration and resilience in a rapidly changing global marketplace.
Keynote insights:
- Alan Arcand (Economist) shared a forward-looking economic outlook, emphasizing how global trade trends will shape Canadian logistics in the coming years.
- Lars Jensen (Maritime Expert) offered sharp analysis of shipping challenges, from port congestion to sustainability in ocean freight.
- Charles Fortier (HR Leader) addressed the human side of logistics, focusing on workforce development and leadership in times of disruption.
The conference featured expert panels across all modes of transport – air, ocean, rail and trucking – as well as sessions on insurance, legal frameworks, technology adoption and international trade. These discussions provided actionable strategies for companies navigating supply chain complexity and regulatory changes.
As your freight forwarding partner, we believe it’s essential to stay ahead of the curve. Attending events like the CIFFA Conference isn’t just about networking – it’s about bringing back knowledge, insights, and connections that directly strengthen the service we provide to you.
What it means for our clients:
- Up-to-date expertise: We gain firsthand updates on global trade regulations, customs changes and transportation trends so your shipments move smoothly and compliantly.
- Innovation & technology: Conferences showcase the latest logistics tools and digital solutions, helping us adopt smarter ways to manage your supply chain.
- Risk management: Sessions on insurance, legal frameworks, and market forecasts help us anticipate challenges and protect your cargo.
- Sustainability focus: We learn best practices for greener logistics, ensuring your supply chain aligns with evolving environmental standards.
By investing time in these conferences, we’re investing in our clients. Every insight we gain is applied to make your logistics experience more efficient, resilient, and future-ready.
Air Cargo Demand to the U.S. Declines as World Trade Landscape Shifts
US tariffs, including the ending of De Minimis exemptions, have significantly disrupted air cargo flow to the United States. This has had the greatest impact on e-commerce shipments, which account for about one-third of worldwide air cargo. After months of companies frontloading shipments to avoid the tariffs, demand growth has slowed year over year, as activity decreased on the Transatlantic and Transpacific trade lanes.
In the case of air cargo e-commerce exports from China to the United States, these have declined for the fifth straight month in September, falling 34% year-on-year. While the decline was less severe than the 49% slump seen in June, it highlighted the shift in trade dynamics between Asia, Europe and North America.
At the same time, e-commerce continued to propel Asia-Europe airfreight volumes as China’s e-commerce behemoths accelerated their market share outside the U.S. China Customs data shows low-value and e-commerce sales to Europe surged 62% year-on-year in September, double the growth rate of a year ago and far outpacing China’s overall e-commerce expansion of 18%.
This was also verified by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which confirmed that slowed China-to-U.S. demand has been more than compensated for by strong growth within Asia and on routes linking Asia to Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
The shift is also evident as service providers update their existing services and pivot to where cargo capacity is required. In the case of UPS, they have enhanced aircraft capacity and ground infrastructure in their intra-Asia air network to support growing regional demand for goods transport, while dialling back Transpacific service to the United States.
For more information, contact David Lychek, Director – Ocean & Air Services.
US Truck Driver Shortage
DRIVING THE GAP: NAVIGATING THE 2025 DRIVER SHORTAGE
As we approach the end of 2025, the U.S. trucking industry finds itself at a familiar, yet increasingly precarious, crossroads. Despite hopes of stabilization, the driver shortage remains a persistent challenge, with industry estimates placing the labour gap at 60,000 to 80,000 drivers.
While this figure is alarming on its own, projections indicate the shortfall could reach 115,000 by year’s end if current trends persist. For carriers and supply chain managers alike, understanding the nuance behind these numbers is critical for navigating the road ahead.
The Perfect Storm: Why the Gap Persists
The shortage is not the result of a single failure, but rather a convergence of structural, economic, and regulatory pressures.
The Demographic Cliff The “graying” of the fleet continues to be the most significant structural hurdle. The average age of a commercial truck driver in the U.S. now hovers at 46, with a substantial portion of the workforce approaching the retirement age of 62. Simply put, the industry is losing experienced veterans faster than it can recruit the next generation.
Barriers to Entry: Recruiting younger drivers remains an uphill battle. Misconceptions about the profession, combined with the gruelling nature of long-haul routes and a cultural shift toward work-life balance, have kept the under-25 demographic away. Globally, fewer than 12% of truck drivers are under 25—a statistic that is even lower in Europe (5%).
Economic and Regulatory Headwinds For owner-operators and fleets, the barrier to entry is financial as well as physical. Rising operational costs—spanning fuel, maintenance, and insurance—along with the high price of new equipment, are squeezing margins.
Adding to the complexity are regulatory shifts introduced as recently as August 2025. New policies, including a pause on employment visas for foreign-born commercial drivers and stricter English-language proficiency requirements, threaten to constrict the pipeline of potential workers just when the industry needs them most.
The Ripple Effect: Supply Chains and Wallets
The lack of drivers is not an isolated industry problem; it is a macroeconomic one. The immediate threat is to the resilience of the U.S. supply chain, with potential delays looming for consumer products, food, and construction materials.
These disruptions inevitably hit consumers’ wallets. As capacity tightens, freight rates rise, creating inflationary pressure that is passed down to the shelf price of goods.
A Global Phenomenon
The U.S. is not alone in this crisis. The International Road Transport Union (IRU) 2023 report highlighted over 3 million unfilled truck driver positions across 36 studied countries. Without significant intervention, global shortages are forecast to double in the next five years.
However, there is a silver lining for the workforce itself. The intense competition for talent has forced a positive shift in compensation. Companies are increasingly offering higher wages and improved working conditions to attract and retain drivers.
Looking Ahead
While the market has seen short-term fluctuations—such as the recent “freight recession” that created a temporary surplus—experts predict a slow recovery in early 2025 followed by rapid expansion. As freight demand rises with economic recovery, the pressure to fill these empty seats will only intensify.
For Route Newsletter readers, the message is clear: The driver shortage is an ongoing structural deficit, not a temporary blip. Solving it will require more than higher paychecks; it will demand a concerted effort to improve drivers’ quality of life, address the parking crisis, and rethink how the industry appeals to the next generation.
Global Spotlight Quiz
What major transportation hub is both a country and a city?
- One of only three city-states in the world that don’t have a capital – the other two are Monaco and Vatican City.
- It has four official languages – English, Chinese, Malay & Tamil.
- Its name means “Lion City”, however, no lions have ever lived there naturally.
- Home to the world’s first nocturnal zoo – the Night Safari.
- The sale and import of chewing gum is banned unless required for medical reasons.
- Home to the top ranked airport in the world.
For more information about shipping freight to or from this city, contact Monserrat Vazquez, Manager – Freight Solutions.
Quick Tip
Avoid overspending on transportation when it is not necessary
Determine what service level you need to meet your transit time and delivery targets. Match your needs to the appropriate mode of transport and you can cut costs.
Look at more than one option: air or ocean; truck or rail; direct or by consolidation.
Various modes of transport may offer different rates or services, depending on the day of your shipment. For example, airfreight shipments from Hong Kong are typically cheaper mid-week than on weekends, when airlines have less availability.
At Your Service
Beatriz Silva
Freight Solutions
Beatriz Silva joined Universal Logistics in October 2024, as a member of our Freight Solutions team. In her role, Beatriz coordinates ocean shipments from overseas origins to Canada and the USA, ensuring that our clients’ cargo moves smoothly and reliably. Her attention to detail and proactive approach have been instrumental in avoiding delays and keeping our clients’ supply chains resilient. What truly sets Beatriz apart is her passion for problem-solving. Whether it’s navigating complex regulations or finding creative solutions to unexpected challenges, she consistently brings a forward-thinking mindset that benefits our clients.
Beatriz is dedicated to ensuring our clients are well taken care of. Her hard work, adaptability, and global perspective make her an invaluable part of our team – and a trusted partner in your logistics journey.
Beatriz can be reached by phone (905) 882-4880, ext. 1286 or by email.
Freight Solutions
SMART Logistics
Controlling how freight moves through your supply chain could save you thousands – or more.
Working with us means someone always asks: how can we make this shipment better?
Single-sourced trucking, customs clearance and distribution to expedite your freight shipments between the U.S. and Canada.
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Route is produced by Universal Logistics. Editor: Bettina Scharnberg. Email: bscharnberg@universallogistics.ca While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of information contained herein, Universal Logistics accepts no responsibility or liability for errors or omissions. Written correspondence should be forwarded to:
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