DRIVING THE GAP: NAVIGATING THE 2025 DRIVER SHORTAGE
As we approach the end of 2025, the U.S. trucking industry finds itself at a familiar, yet increasingly precarious, crossroads. Despite hopes of stabilization, the driver shortage remains a persistent challenge, with industry estimates placing the labour gap at 60,000 to 80,000 drivers.
While this figure is alarming on its own, projections indicate the shortfall could reach 115,000 by year’s end if current trends persist. For carriers and supply chain managers alike, understanding the nuance behind these numbers is critical for navigating the road ahead.
The Perfect Storm: Why the Gap Persists
The shortage is not the result of a single failure, but rather a convergence of structural, economic, and regulatory pressures.
The Demographic Cliff The “graying” of the fleet continues to be the most significant structural hurdle. The average age of a commercial truck driver in the U.S. now hovers at 46, with a substantial portion of the workforce approaching the retirement age of 62. Simply put, the industry is losing experienced veterans faster than it can recruit the next generation.
Barriers to Entry: Recruiting younger drivers remains an uphill battle. Misconceptions about the profession, combined with the gruelling nature of long-haul routes and a cultural shift toward work-life balance, have kept the under-25 demographic away. Globally, fewer than 12% of truck drivers are under 25—a statistic that is even lower in Europe (5%).
Economic and Regulatory Headwinds For owner-operators and fleets, the barrier to entry is financial as well as physical. Rising operational costs—spanning fuel, maintenance, and insurance—along with the high price of new equipment, are squeezing margins.
Adding to the complexity are regulatory shifts introduced as recently as August 2025. New policies, including a pause on employment visas for foreign-born commercial drivers and stricter English-language proficiency requirements, threaten to constrict the pipeline of potential workers just when the industry needs them most.
The Ripple Effect: Supply Chains and Wallets
The lack of drivers is not an isolated industry problem; it is a macroeconomic one. The immediate threat is to the resilience of the U.S. supply chain, with potential delays looming for consumer products, food, and construction materials.
These disruptions inevitably hit consumers’ wallets. As capacity tightens, freight rates rise, creating inflationary pressure that is passed down to the shelf price of goods.
A Global Phenomenon
The U.S. is not alone in this crisis. The International Road Transport Union (IRU) 2023 report highlighted over 3 million unfilled truck driver positions across 36 studied countries. Without significant intervention, global shortages are forecast to double in the next five years.
However, there is a silver lining for the workforce itself. The intense competition for talent has forced a positive shift in compensation. Companies are increasingly offering higher wages and improved working conditions to attract and retain drivers.
Looking Ahead
While the market has seen short-term fluctuations—such as the recent “freight recession” that created a temporary surplus—experts predict a slow recovery in early 2025 followed by rapid expansion. As freight demand rises with economic recovery, the pressure to fill these empty seats will only intensify.
For Route Newsletter readers, the message is clear: The driver shortage is an ongoing structural deficit, not a temporary blip. Solving it will require more than higher paychecks; it will demand a concerted effort to improve drivers’ quality of life, address the parking crisis, and rethink how the industry appeals to the next generation.
