As we look ahead to 2026, the logistics landscape is shifting toward a buyer’s market. Both ocean and air shipping sectors are expected to see significant overcapacity, likely leading to more favourable market conditions and generally lower freight rates. However, shippers should remain cautious: geopolitical risks and carriers’ active capacity management will continue to introduce volatility.
Transpacific Ocean Freight (Asia – North America)
The sea freight market is currently defined by oversupply. Carriers are recognizing that they have deployed excessive tonnage on the Trans-Pacific trade, which has led to declining ocean freight rates since the second week of December.
To counter this, carriers are actively managing capacity through blank sailings to balance weaker demand.
- Artificial Recovery: Capacity will be reduced in weeks 50 through 52, and the first week of January. This is an attempt to support the General Rate Increase (GRI) on January 1st and capitalize on a short-term volume rebound ahead of the Chinese New Year.
- Weak Demand Persists: Despite these tactical cuts, the effects of rising tariffs and geopolitical considerations suggest that weakening cargo demand will likely remain through the first half of 2026.
- Sourcing Shifts: The general outlook for Transpacific trade appears flat. As a result, companies are increasingly adopting a “China+1” sourcing strategy, boosting volumes from Vietnam, Thailand, and India. However, constant changes in U.S. policies introduce significant uncertainty to this approach.
Transpacific Air Freight (Asia – North America)
In 2026, the airfreight market is projected to slow down following the holiday spike. With air cargo demand growth lagging behind capacity expansion, the market is entering a period of normalization.
- Rate Outlook: The combination of weak demand and increased capacity from new freighters and passenger jets is expected to keep spot rates and average yields under pressure. Forecasts point toward a general decline in airfreight rates throughout 2026.
- Bright Spots: While overall demand is not accelerating quickly enough to tighten the market, specialized sectors such as e-commerce and pharmaceuticals will continue to see persistent demand due to the requirement for fast delivery services.
Navigate 2026 with Confidence
With the market shifting and new sourcing strategies emerging, having a dependable logistics partner is more critical than ever. Whether you are navigating the “China+1” landscape or looking to maximize savings in a buyer’s market, Universal Logistics brings the expertise and stability you need to protect your bottom line. Contact our team today to ensure your supply chain is ready for the year ahead.
For more information, contact Monserrat Vazquez, Manager – Freight Solutions.
